{"id":5694,"date":"2026-06-16T15:32:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T07:32:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/?p=5694"},"modified":"2026-06-16T15:52:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T07:52:28","slug":"post-5694","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/engagement\/post-5694\/","title":{"rendered":"16\/Jun\/2026 \u2013 Implications for Japan Pure Chemical: AI Data Center Optical Transceiver Market Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

In November last year, Hibiki Path Advisors (from January 2026, Hibiki Path Advisors SPC; hereinafter collectively referred to as \u201cwe\u201d, \u201cus\u201d or \u201cour\u201d) published a post entitled \u201cJapan Pure Chemical: The Hidden AI Stock You Can\u2019t Ignore \uff5eSpotlight on AI Server Optical Transceivers\uff5e<\/a>\u201d (the \u201cPrevious Post\u201d), which implies that demand growth in data centers is expected to drive expansion in the optical transceiver market. In this update, we would like to share the latest developments since the Previous Post, including changes in the growth outlook for the optical transceiver market and the functionality required for optical transceivers.<\/p>\n

Optical transceiver and optical communications-related stocks have continued to perform strongly since the publication of our Previous Post. Coherent, a global leader in optical transceivers, traded at USD 154 on November 26 (the day before our Previous Post was published\u00b9), and reached USD 361 at the end of May this year\u2014approximately a 2.4x increase in just half a year. The same trend is visible in Japanese equities. Suncall (5985) and Seikoh Giken (6834), which we cited as examples in our Previous Post, recorded gains of +45% and +106.6%, respectively, over the period from November 27 to May 29. The major \u201cthree electrical cable companies\u201d\u2014Furukawa Electric (5801), Sumitomo Electric (5802), and Fujikura (5803)\u2014have also shown strong performance, as widely recognized.<\/p>\n

Figure 1: Stock price performance of high-speed optical communications-related companies (selected names from Previous Post, over approx. six months from late November to the end of May)<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"*For overseas companies, the \u201cPrevious prices\u201d are the closing prices on November 26, while those of Japanese companies are the closing prices on November 27.
\n<\/em>*Prices are shown in local currency and adjusted for stock splits.<\/em><\/p>\n

(Source: Bloomberg)<\/p>\n

We believe that the first factor underpinning the continued strong performance of optical communications-related stocks is the further acceleration in market growth expectations since our Previous Post. Stock prices reflect expectations regarding companies\u2019 future cash flows and earnings. As expectations for market expansion increase, investors are also likely to anticipate stronger business growth\u2014and, ultimately, earnings growth\u2014from companies operating in that market, leading to higher stock prices.<\/p>\n

Then, to what extent have expectations for market growth increased? As one example, we refer to a market research report published in April 2026 by TrendForce<\/a>, which we consider one of the most authoritative research firms specializing in the high-tech industry. According to the report, the global optical transceiver market is expected to expand from USD 16.5 bn in 2025 to USD 26.0 bn in 2026, implying a very high year-on-year growth rate of over 57%. Having spent many years in the investment industry, we rarely encounter market research reports forecasting growth of this magnitude in other sectors.<\/p>\n

Figure 2: Optical transceiver market outlook\"\"<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

(Source: TrendForce<\/a>)<\/p>\n

On the other hand, even when high growth is expected, if the market is already pricing in, for example, 50% growth expectations, and those expectations decline to 30%, stock prices can fall significantly. In this regard, our impression is that growth expectations for the optical transceiver market have continued to rise over time. Sumitomo Electric published an interesting slide in November last year, comparing the market outlook as of 2024 with that as of 2025. The slide shows that the projected market growth rate from 2026 onward was revised upward from approximately 7% in the 2024 forecast to 16% in the 2025 forecast\u2014more than double the previous projection. In addition, Mitsubishi Electric\u2019s semiconductor and device business presentation<\/a> released on May 29 this year drew on the same research firm\u2019s latest report, published in January, to highlight the market\u2019s strong growth prospects. Even professional research firms are revising forecasts upward, and companies on the front lines of the industry are being forced to revise their own plans accordingly\u2014suggesting that a clear acceleration in growth is underway.<\/p>\n

Figure 3: Changes in the Outlook for the Optical Transceiver Market\"\"<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

(Source: Sumitomo Electric, \u201cGrowth strategy for data center-related business<\/a>\u201d)<\/p>\n

Another important trend is the shift in the product mix toward higher-speed optical transceivers, which we believe will drive further migration toward higher-value-added products. According to a forecast published by TrendForce in February<\/a>, optical transceivers with transmission speeds of 800G or higher accounted for 19.5% of global shipments by volume in 2024, but their share is projected to increase substantially to more than 60% in 2026.<\/p>\n

According to information from Fibermall<\/a> as of June this year, products listed under the \u201cSR8\u201d and \u201cThird-Party Price\u201d categories were priced at approximately USD 1,400\u20131,800 for 400G transceivers and USD 3,500\u20135,000 for 800G transceivers, implying a 2-3x price difference. Taking this into account, while the underlying demand for large volumes remains unchanged as discussed in our Previous Post, the transition to higher-value-added generations means that growth is now being driven by both volume and price (\u201cquantity\u201d * \u201cprice\u201d), which is increasingly likely to have a positive impact on profitability.<\/p>\n

Figure 4: Share of optical transceiver shipments (800Gbps and above)\"\"<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

(Source: TrendForce<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The underlying driver of this high-growth trend is the rapid expansion of the data center market. As demand for data centers increases, the number of connection points between servers and networking equipment\u2014namely optical transceivers\u2014also rises. Therefore, we believe data center market growth is closely correlated with growth in the optical transceiver market. In this context, recent forecasts indicating continued expansion of the data center market provide a very positive outlook for optical transceivers.<\/p>\n

For example, JLL\u2019s forecast in January<\/a> suggests that global data center capacity will double between 2026 and 2030, with up to USD 3 tn of investment required by 2030, marking what JLL describes as a \u201csupercycle.\u201d Focusing specifically on AI, a report<\/a> forecasts market growth of 25.8% between 2026 and 2036\u2014reflecting growth worthy of the term \u201csupercycle.\u201d In addition, CME has announced the establishment of a futures market for compute resources<\/a>, highlighting intensifying competition for computational capacity. We therefore expect the value of data centers\u2014the core infrastructure of this ecosystem\u2014to continue rising.<\/p>\n

At present, AI usage is evolving from simple chat and search assistance toward more autonomous, agentic AI systems. As AI becomes more deeply embedded in real business processes, the number, complexity, and concurrency of inference workloads are increasing rapidly. In such an environment, where AI\u2014not humans\u2014executes increasingly complex computational tasks autonomously, the demand for compute resources is expected to grow exponentially, further reinforcing the expansion of the data center market.<\/p>\n

TrendForce has significantly upgraded its outlook for the memory market<\/a>\u2014one of the core components of data centers\u2014citing agentic AI as a structural driver of demand. It raised its 2026 global memory market forecast from USD 551.6 bn to USD 889.3 bn (+61%), and its 2027 forecast from USD 842.7 bn to over USD 1.28 tn (+52%). SK hynix\u2019s chairman has also suggested that AI-driven memory shortages could persist until at least 2030<\/a>, as competition for compute resources continues to intensify.<\/p>\n

In fact, NVIDIA, which has become a key flag-bearer of the AI ecosystem, is already taking proactive steps in response to tightening computational resource constraints. On March 11 this year, it announced a USD 2 bn investment in Nebius<\/a>, and on May 7 it entered into a strategic partnership with IREN<\/a>, securing investment rights of up to USD 2.1 bn. While the press releases do not explicitly frame these moves in terms of \u201ccompute scarcity,\u201d both companies are so-called neo-cloud providers<\/a>, specializing in cloud services for AI workloads\u2014in other words, they are effectively part of the underlying infrastructure layer of AI compute supply. From this perspective, these actions can be interpreted as strategic groundwork. By building close relationships at an early stage, NVIDIA is effectively positioning itself to secure a dominant role across the future AI compute stack.<\/p>\n

At the same time, amid tightening supply-demand conditions for compute resources, investment into data center capacity continues to expand significantly on a global scale. In May, SoftBank Group announced a plan to develop AI data center capacity in France<\/a>, targeting 3.1 GW in the first phase alone by 2031, corresponding to approximately EUR 45 bn in investment. Google, widely recognized as one of the leading hyperscalers, also announced an USD 80 bn capital raise in June 2026<\/a>, with proceeds earmarked for AI infrastructure, including data centers and semiconductors required for AI development and operations. On a broader industry basis, hyperscalers collectively are expected to invest approximately USD 600 bn into AI-related infrastructure<\/a>. More recently, SK Group, whose HBM business holds the leading share of the global market, was reported to be working with NVIDIA to establish an AI data center in Japan<\/a> (Japanese only). News of investment and other developments across the sector continues unabated.<\/p>\n

Behind this wave of large-scale data center investment lies a structural shift: AI infrastructure spending is gradually moving away from being perceived as a \u201clong-term bet\u201d and is increasingly being recognized as a source of near-term, tangible economic returns. For instance, Anthropic is reportedly expected to record its first operating profit in the April\u2013June 2026 quarter<\/a>. At the same time, hyperscalers themselves continue to deliver very strong performance. In Amazon\u2019s Q1 2026 results, AWS segment revenue<\/a> grew +28% year-on-year, with operating profit up +23%, while Google Cloud delivered +63% revenue growth<\/a>\u2014evidence that AI-driven demand remains firmly intact.<\/p>\n

\uff5e\uff5e\uff5e<\/p>\n

Now, it has become increasingly clear that data center investment is being structurally supported by the rising importance of compute resources driven by the emergence of Agentic AI, and that this demand is naturally cascading into the optical transceiver market. From here, we would like to discuss how tightening constraints in compute resources are changing the design of data centers\u2014and why this shift represents an opportunity for the optical transceiver market.<\/p>\n

As noted in our Previous Post, a data center is not simply a matter of neatly arranging servers. Rather, it requires highly sophisticated system-level design to maximize compute efficiency across the entire infrastructure. Given ongoing supply constraints in core components such as HBM, we expect further acceleration in data center densification and increasing thermal intensity<\/a> (Japanese only) as operators seek to secure compute resources more efficiently than ever before. In other words, there is a growing incentive to reduce physical distance covered by optical communication networks, both inside and between data centers, in order to minimize latency and transmission inefficiencies. As a side effect, this leads to a further increase in heat density compared to prior generations.<\/p>\n

The underlying issue is that advances in optical communication are no longer necessarily keeping pace with the rapid acceleration of CPU and GPU performance. While light is considered the fastest-moving phenomenon in the world and travels through optical fiber at approximately 200,000 km per second, even this is insufficient to fully keep up with the scale of computation and data exchange generated by modern CPU\/GPU systems, resulting in computational inefficiencies and processing loss.<\/p>\n

Moreover, these losses increase as transmission distances become longer, creating a structural disadvantage. As a result, we believe the response increasingly adopted going forward will be based on the idea of \u201creducing the areas in which such losses can arise in the first place.\u201d Even when taking into account the side effect of increased heat generation caused by higher density, we believe this approach is likely to be increasingly incorporated into data center design as a practical solution.<\/p>\n

If data center densification continues, optical transceivers and their related materials are likely to face a broader set of functional requirements beyond simply higher transmission speeds. In our view, this represents an opportunity for the market as a whole. Optical transceivers sit at the critical interface between servers and optical fiber networks. As such, they are directly exposed to the increased thermal stress associated with the higher heat density discussed above. At the same time, if an optical transceiver fails, data transmission at that connection point can be completely disrupted, which in turn can have a material impact on overall data center profitability.<\/p>\n

Accordingly, from the perspective of minimizing downtime, demand for higher value-added optical transceivers is likely to increase meaningfully going forward. In this context, the two characteristics highlighted in our Previous Post\u2014high electrical conductivity (to suppress unnecessary heat generation) and high corrosion resistance (to ensure long-term operational stability)\u2014remain consistently critical<\/u>. We expect these requirements to persist, supporting overall market expansion, while at the same time driving a clear bifurcation in the industry, where manufacturers lacking the necessary technological capabilities risk being left behind.<\/p>\n

The optical transceiver market is one that can both benefit from the investment cycle in data centers and, at the same time, convert its inherent bottlenecks into sources of growth. Japan Pure Chemical Co., Ltd. (Securities code: 4973, \u201cJPC\u201d), one of our core portfolio companies, is also well positioned in this context. Its optical transceiver-related business is supported by its high-level gold and palladium plating technologies, which we believe can contribute meaningfully to addressing the challenges outlined above. As noted in our Previous Post, gold plating offers superior electrical conductivity and corrosion resistance, enabling reliable performance even under increasingly harsh operating conditions. In this regard, the ongoing shift toward higher value-added requirements in the market is viewed as a tailwind for JPC, which has historically developed its business on the basis of strong technical capabilities.<\/p>\n

Over the past several years, JPC has faced headwinds due to the post-COVID slowdown in smartphone and notebook PC demand. However, we are now beginning to see signs of a recovery, supported not only by GPU-related demand from customers such as Ibiden, but also by the tailwinds emerging from the optical transceiver space discussed in this note. In addition, as partially outlined in our prior commentary on JPC\u2019s capital policy<\/a>, the company is in the process of shifting its capital allocation strategy\u2014reducing cross-shareholdings while reallocating capital toward growth investment and shareholder returns.<\/p>\n

Taken together, these developments suggest that JPC is gradually transitioning from a (deep) value-oriented profile toward that of a growth company. While we, as long-term \u201cvalue investor”<\/a>, find the strengthening fundamentals and strategic evolution of the company encouraging, we also recognize a certain sense of nostalgia as its investment identity evolves. Nonetheless, we remain fully supportive and sincerely hope for the company\u2019s continued and substantial development going forward.<\/p>\n

\u00b9 The US market was closed on November 27th<\/sup> as it was Thanksgiving Day.<\/p>\n

(Reference)
\n27\/Nov\/2025 \u30fc Japan Pure Chemical: The Hidden AI Stock You Can\u2019t Ignore \uff5eSpotlight on AI Server Optical Transceivers \uff5e<\/a>
\n26\/May\/2026 \uff0d Japan Pure Chemical: Our Views on the Significant Improvement of the Capital Policy<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

This post does not constitute a proposal, solicitation, marketing communication, advertisement, inducement or representation in respect of any service or product, nor does it constitute advice to buy or sell any investment product or any investment of any kind, or a recommendation to purchase or sell any investment product, make any investment, execute any transaction, or refrain from taking any other action, whether or not any terms are described. It also does not constitute an opinion regarding the merits of any particular investment or investment strategy. Any examples of strategies or transactions are provided solely for illustrative purposes and do not indicate any past or future strategy or performance, nor do they indicate the likelihood of success of any particular strategy. This post does not constitute investment, financial, legal, tax, or any other advice.<\/p>\n

This post presents our assessments, estimates, and opinions regarding the business of Japan Pure Chemical Co., Ltd. (\u201cJPC\u201d).<\/p>\n

This post has been prepared based on publicly available information, which we have not independently verified, and is not complete, timely, or comprehensive.<\/p>\n

Although we believe that the information contained in this post is accurate and reliable, we make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of such information, or of any statements or oral communications regarding JPC or any other companies described herein. We also assume no responsibility for any such statements or communications, including any inaccuracies or omissions therein. With respect to public companies, there may be non-public information held by such companies or their insiders that has not been disclosed by those companies. Accordingly, all information contained in this post is presented \u201cas is,\u201d without any warranty of any kind, and we make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information, or the results of its use. Readers should obtain their own professional advice and make their own assessment of the relevant matters. We disclaim no obligation or liability for any loss arising from, or in connection with, the use of all or any part of the information contained in this post, including any inaccuracies or omissions therein. Any investment involves significant risks, including the risk of a complete loss of capital. Any forecasts or estimates are provided solely for illustrative purposes and should not be regarded as indicating any upper limit of potential gains or losses. We may modify all or part of this post without notice to any person, but we are under no obligation to provide any revisions, updates, additional information or materials in relation to this post, or to correct any inaccuracies.<\/p>\n

This post may contain content or quotations from, or hyperlinks to, publicly available third-party sources of information (\u201cThird-Party Materials\u201d). Permission to quote Third-Party Materials in this post may not have been sought or obtained. The contents of Third-Party Materials have not been independently verified by us and do not necessarily reflect our views. The authors and\/or publishers of Third-Party Materials are independent from us and may hold views that differ from ours. The inclusion of Third-Party Materials in this post does not imply that we endorse or agree with any part of the content of such Third-Party Materials, nor does it imply that the authors or publishers of such Third-Party Materials endorse or agree with the views expressed by us in relation to the relevant matters. Third-Party Materials do not constitute all relevant news reports or views expressed by third parties regarding the matters discussed herein.<\/p>\n

We do not intend, either by ourselves or through other shareholders, to propose at a general meeting of shareholders of JPC that the business or assets of JPC be transferred to a third party or discontinued. We also have no intention of engaging in any conduct whose purpose would be to make it difficult for JPC to continue conducting their businesses in a stable and ongoing manner.<\/p>\n

We currently beneficially own and\/or have an economic interest in securities of JPC, and may continue to beneficially own or have an economic interest in such securities in the future. With respect to our investment in JPC, we may, on an ongoing basis and depending on various factors \u2014 including the financial condition and strategic direction of JPC, the results of discussions with JPC, overall market conditions, other investment opportunities available to us, and the possibility of purchasing or selling securities of JPC at prices at which we desire to transact \u2014 at any time, including through open-market or private transactions after we have established a position, buy, sell, cover, hedge, or otherwise change the form or substance of our investment, including securities of JPC, in any manner permitted by applicable laws and regulations, and we expressly disclaim any obligation to notify others of any such changes. We reserve the right to take any actions we deem appropriate in relation to our investment in JPC. Such actions may include, but are not limited to, communications with the board of directors, management, or other investors.<\/p>\n

\n

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In November last year, Hibiki Path Advisors (from January 2026, Hibiki Path Advisors SPC; hereinafter collectively referred to as \u201cwe\u201d, \u201cus\u201d or \u201cour\u201d) published a post entitled \u201cJapan Pure Chemical: The Hidden AI Stock You Can\u2019t Ignore \uff5eSpotlight on AI Server Optical Transceivers\uff5e\u201d (the \u201cPrevious Post\u201d), which implies that demand growth in data centers is expected to drive expansion in the optical transceiver market. In this update, we would like to share the latest developments since the Previous Post, including changes in the growth outlook for the optical transceiver market and the functionality required for optical transceivers. Optical transceiver and optical communications-related stocks have continued to perform strongly since the publication of our Previous Post. Coherent, a global leader in optical transceivers, traded at USD 154 on November 26 (the day before our Previous Post was published\u00b9), and reached USD 361 at the end of May this year\u2014approximately a 2.4x increase in just half a year. The same trend is visible in Japanese equities. Suncall (5985) and Seikoh Giken (6834), which we cited as examples in our Previous Post, recorded gains of +45% and +106.6%, respectively, over the period from November 27 to May 29. The major \u201cthree electrical cable companies\u201d\u2014Furukawa Electric (5801), Sumitomo Electric (5802), and Fujikura (5803)\u2014have also shown strong performance, as widely recognized. Figure 1: Stock price performance of high-speed optical communications-related companies (selected names from Previous Post, over approx. six months from late November to the end of May) *For overseas companies, the \u201cPrevious prices\u201d are the closing prices on November 26, while…","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":532,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83,39,68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-message-2026","category-engagement","category-68"],"views":66,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5694"}],"version-history":[{"count":32,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5738,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5694\/revisions\/5738"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}