{"id":266,"date":"2016-11-28T08:42:50","date_gmt":"2016-11-28T08:42:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/?p=266"},"modified":"2024-07-20T10:51:37","modified_gmt":"2024-07-20T02:51:37","slug":"post-266","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/message\/post-266\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Pay Attention to the Stock Price"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<h2>Why Pay Attention to the Stock Price<\/h2>\n<style type=\"text\/css\">\n.table5 {\n  border-collapse: collapse;\n  width:100%;\n}\n.table5 th {\n  background-color: #ffffff;\n}\n.table5 td {\n  text-align: justify;\n}\n<\/style>\n<table class=\"table5\" border=0>\n<tr>\n<td>\nToday, I would like to share my personal thoughts about something that executives of many listed companies are pondering in your hearts on a regular basis. I think that many\u3000of you have conducted your own surveys, thought about it, and accepted it, but through\u3000your words, feel that you are truly feeling that you the answer you have come up is not\u3000completely convincing. I don\u2019t know if my interpretation will resolve the issue, but\u3000today, I would like to at least put forth something that have been accepted by several\u3000proprietors of listed companies whom I respect, and to be more accurate, something that\u3000is said to be already known as an obvious thing without the need to be told.<\/p>\n<p>First, there&#8217;s this: Don\u2019t you all feel, and I feel it too, that there is almost no correlation\u3000between daily stock price movements and corporate value? I really feel that\u2019s the case.\u3000Stock prices not only measure the temperature of the economy in general, but they also\u3000measure the economy\u2019s blood pressure and pulse to find out its emotional state, so stock\u3000prices\u2019 daily movements are a reaction to various external factors. Mental factors exert a\u3000lot of influence too. To be sure, although most stock price movements are in response to\u3000earnings revisions or other major news released by any given company, even these are\u3000examples of the eminent economist John Maynard Keynes\u2019s statement that stock prices\u3000are akin to votes in a beauty contest. For example, if a certain company\u2019s stock price\u3000goes up 5% the day after it revises its earnings, that does not mean that its corporate\u3000value has increased by 5%. It only means that buying and selling among market\u3000participants was brought into equilibrium, nothing more and nothing less.<\/p>\n<p>One famous equity investor in the U.S. said, \u201cCorporate value is like watching grass grow. Even if you watch it every day, you have no idea how much it has grown.\u201d Naturally, many things happen at the company every day, and without a doubt these occurrences are very trying. However, the value of an entire corporation does not\u3000change very suddenly, except in such cases as a major merger or acquisition.\u3000Even so, I would like to give two reasons why management needs to pay attention to the\u3000stock price anyway. First, please look at the table below. This is a simple comparison of the stock valuations and financials of relatively stable companies ranked first through fourth in a certain industry. This industry is an oligopoly in which the top four companies already have at least 50% of the market share. The business climate is such\u3000that it is easy to earn excess profits.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30c8-2017-11-26-16.52.09.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1232\" height=\"332\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-274\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30c8-2017-11-26-16.52.09.png 1232w, https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30c8-2017-11-26-16.52.09-300x81.png 300w, https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30c8-2017-11-26-16.52.09-768x207.png 768w, https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30c8-2017-11-26-16.52.09-1024x276.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1232px) 100vw, 1232px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>What you will soon notice is that the fourth largest company has a very low stock\u3000valuation. Although the company is not losing money, its price\/book ratio (PBR) is 0.6\u3000times, and its market capitalization is only 0.2 times its revenue. Of course, we see that\u3000its profitability is apparently low, and its market share is significantly lower than those\u3000of the majors, so it has no price-leading capability and is instead relegated to being a\u3000price-taker. Yet still, it seems that the difference in its stock valuation vis-a-vis its peers\u3000is much too large.<\/p>\n<p>So, in my opinion, this is the first reason we should pay attention to stock prices: so that\u3000we can avoid a situation in which the tail is wagging the dog. In other words, even though everything is fine (right now, I can\u2019t see anything wrong with this fourth-place\u3000company; in fact, it possesses many aspects that could lead to improved profitability \u2013\u3000and potentially a much higher stock price based on such positive developments), if the\u3000company has the misfortune of undergoing various challenges that cause its stock price\u3000to stagnate, the stock price itself would start sending its own signals in a derogatory\u3000sense of \u201cthere should be something really bad about this company, since its stock price\u3000looks so cheap just seen on surface.\u201d It seems to me that once this happens, a vicious\u3000circle will ensue, so that it will usually be extremely\u3000difficult for the company to\u3000extricate itself from such a stock valuation.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, from the perspective of investors like myself, the stock price of this\u3000fourth-ranked company is very cheap, so it looks interesting, but as there are more than\u30003,000 companies listed on the exchange in Japan (and Japan does not look like a\u3000structurally growing economy), unless it attracts attraction to some degree, it would be likely to be put into a corner and easily be\u3000ignored from the market for several years.\u3000Not being recognized for any achievements is a cruel way to treat corporate\u3000management, isn\u2019t it? So, in the sense of at least making sure that one\u2019s own company\u2019s\u3000stock price is not treated in such a way vis-a-vis those if its peers, watching and\u3000re-examining from time-to-time the company\u2019s stock price are an extremely critical\u3000exercise.<\/p>\n<p>On the same note, but in fact on the contrary, we can get many ideas about analyzing\u3000stock valuations by looking at how rival companies with higher stock valuations differ\u3000from one\u2019s own company, and conducting a comparative financial analysis to find out\u3000how to close the valuation gap. In this specific example put forth above, there are also\u3000economies of scale, and there is a distinct gap in operating profitability between the\u3000number-four company and those ranked above it. In other words, if we believe that this\u3000is part of the reason for the difference in the stock valuation, improving operating\u3000profitability will naturally lead to a higher stock price valuation. Also, because the\u3000price\/earnings ratio (PER) is already so much lower than those of peers, rise of the PER\u3000level itself (for example, from 13 times to 20 times) by improving the company\u2019s\u3000financial metrics could be possible (if profit doubles and the PER goes from 13 times to\u300020 times, the stock price will triple). Hints on what to do when comparing the company\u3000with its peers can be gleaned by looking at the stock price situation.<\/p>\n<p>The second reason is that, unlike the above case in which the company was put in a\u3000corner and ignored by the market for over several years, some may consider it\u3000unnecessary to worry about the company because it is not going bankrupt and is not in a\u3000crisis. However, that cannot be said. This is because, compared with the higher-ranked\u3000companies, the fourth-ranked company has an extremely low stock valuation, so it may\u3000be a good acquisition target from its peers. This is even more so if there are no issues\u3000with the company\u2019s financial performance or asset composition. If greater scale\u3000economies and a better value chain result will be achieved with the acquisition,\u3000improving profitability will be easy, and the higher profitability will lead to a higher\u3000stock valuation (of the acquirer), thereby leading to a situation of business value\u3000creation. Economic welfare will increase, and nothing bad will happen (except to the\u3000management of the acquired company who will likely be let go). Thus, in the second\u3000reason, keeping an eye on the stock price is important in order to preclude becoming the\u3000target of one\u2019s peers or dishonest investors. To be precise, it is stock valuation, not the\u3000stock price.<\/p>\n<p>Some may well argue that hostile take-over will not fit well with the harmonious\u3000Japanese culture and especially if the large part of the company\u2019s stock is held by the\u3000family or cross\u3000shareholdings threats are limited and it is an exaggeration to be so\u3000alarmful. However, it is\u3000also an eye-catching truth that Japanese pension is starting to\u3000face outflows due to aging as well as Bank-led cross shareholding tradition is becoming\u3000obsolete due to harsher Basel regulation on holdings of risky assets by banks. Nobody\u3000really discussed the consequence of these phenomenon, but people should be, by now,\u3000painfully aware that unless foreign shareholders replace such block of shareholdings\u3000these companies will have less shareholders to support the business moving forward.\u3000It is a positive development as companies in Japan are more keen to create a strong\u3000website as well as more detailed and investor friendly IR documents but if such is\u3000conducted just for the sake of raising the share price to an un-reasonably high level\u3000(maybe to do new issuance to acquire another high-valued company) it can be\u3000un-sustainable and shareholders will be disappointed some day to leave with an\u3000extremely bad taste. I believe there are only rare cases where managements think of\u3000such shrewd tactics. It can be well applauded when managements have in their mind\u3000what to do (contingency plans) if he or she feels the stock price is too cheap compared\u3000to what is believed to be a fair value. Such attitude and approach should be the correct\u3000one.<\/p>\n<p>Coming back to real basics, I feel that it is a wonderful thing for the company\u2019s shares\u3000to be publicly tradable. It is the sign of responsibility, importance for the society to be\u3000public and managements and employees can be proud of being part of such organization.\u3000Not to mention, one of the clearest benefit of a company to be public is that the shares\u3000are easily tradable daily. The stock price can be seen as a barometer of the company, a\u3000PR tool, a tool that aligns managements\u2019 and employees\u2019 interests, a tool to give back to\u3000society as dividends what it has achieved over time, and a tool for non-organic\u3000breakthrough \u2013 M&#038;A. Of course there are both good and bad things about how the\u3000Capitalism works and it is creating a lot of disruption especially in political areas. Still,\u3000it is one of the most valuable inventions of mankind and there are apparent benefits in\u3000using them wisely.<\/p>\n<p>I urge you not to waste this valuable asset of yours (being publicly tradable) and not to\u3000let it wag your business rather than wagging it yourselves. I believe those managements\u3000who understands that daily stock price is somewhat noise but also have the capability to\u3000take into consideration that stock price can be integrated and utilized in their corporate\u3000strategies would thrive and\u3000ecome leading companies in their respective industries.\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Thank you<br \/>\nYuya Shimizu<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u4f55\u6545\u682a\u4fa1\u3092\u6c17\u306b\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304b \u3000 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\u3072\u3073\u304d\u30fb\u30d1\u30fc\u30b9\u30fb\u30a2\u30c9\u30d0\u30a4\u30b6\u30fc\u30ba \u4ee3\u8868\u53d6\u7de0\u5f79 \u6e05\u6c34\u96c4\u4e5fWhy Pay Attention to the Stock Price .table5 { border-collapse: collapse; width:100%; } .table5 th { background-color: #ffffff; } .table5 td { text-align: justify; } Today, I would like to share my personal thoughts about something that executives of many listed companies are pondering in your hearts on a regular basis. I think that many\u3000of you have conducted your own surveys, thought about it, and accepted it, but through\u3000your words, feel that you are truly feeling that you the answer you have come up is not\u3000completely convincing. I don\u2019t know if my interpretation will resolve the issue, but\u3000today, I would like to at least put forth something that have been accepted by several\u3000proprietors of listed companies whom I respect, and to be more accurate, something that\u3000is said to be already known as an obvious thing without the need to be told. First, there&#8217;s this: Don\u2019t you all feel, and I feel it too, that there is almost no correlation\u3000between daily stock price movements and corporate value? I really feel that\u2019s the case.\u3000Stock prices not only measure the temperature of the economy in general, but they also\u3000measure the economy\u2019s blood pressure and pulse to find out its emotional state, so stock\u3000prices\u2019 daily movements are a reaction to various external factors. Mental factors exert a\u3000lot of influence too. To be sure, although most stock price movements are in response to\u3000earnings revisions or other major news released by any given company, even these are\u3000examples of the eminent economist John Maynard Keynes\u2019s statement that stock prices\u3000are akin to votes in a beauty contest. For example, if a certain company\u2019s stock price\u3000goes up 5% the day after it revises its earnings, that does not mean that its corporate\u3000value has increased&hellip;","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":532,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,16],"tags":[6],"class_list":{"0":"post-266","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-message","8":"category-16","9":"tag-yuya-shimizu"},"views":26399,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4230,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266\/revisions\/4230"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hibiki-path-advisors.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}